However, while China’s story is continually staggering in its scale, the Chinese economic powerhouse is only a part of a much wider story in Asia. Just like China, rapidly-growing countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia, and The Philippines are also seeing their economies transform in meaningful ways – and Southeast Asia as a whole is becoming one of the most exciting regions for technological adoption, foreign investment, and digital innovation in the world. Today’s infographic comes to us from Sea, and it helps shed some light on the digital wave that’s powering the growth across a geographically expansive and tremendously diverse region.
A Digitizing Economy
With a younger population, growing affluence, and people that are increasingly tech-savvy, the internet population in Southeast Asia is expected to swell from 260 million to 480 million between 2015 and 2020. More and more business is being done online in the region – and as a result, it is estimated that by 2025, the digital economy in Southeast Asian countries will be worth a hefty $197 billion. That’s an impressive 640% increase over the size just a decade prior.
Sectors to Watch
Which parts of the digital economy will see the most impact? According to proprietary data from Google and investment company Temasek, the most interesting sectors to watch in the region should be in e-commerce, digital entertainment, online travel, and digital financial services. E-commerce, which is expected to grow by 261% between 2016 and 2021, is one of the region’s most explosive sectors. With a lack of physical retail stores and limited choice of goods in Southeast Asia, rapidly-growing access to the internet provides a new means for people to shop. Further, the travel and transportation market is also expected to boom with a 90% increase by 2021, and this will be driven by growing ridership in taxi-on-demand services. The area will also see its digital entertainment sector – defined as the combined mobile and PC gaming markets – grow at nearly triple the pace of China over the coming years (145% vs 54%). Lastly, mobile payments is another sector to watch, as tech enables Southeast Asians to “leapfrog” traditional payment technologies like physical bank or credit cards. By 2021, mobile payments will have a 43% market share in the region. on But fast forward to the end of last week, and SVB was shuttered by regulators after a panic-induced bank run. So, how exactly did this happen? We dig in below.
Road to a Bank Run
SVB and its customers generally thrived during the low interest rate era, but as rates rose, SVB found itself more exposed to risk than a typical bank. Even so, at the end of 2022, the bank’s balance sheet showed no cause for alarm.
As well, the bank was viewed positively in a number of places. Most Wall Street analyst ratings were overwhelmingly positive on the bank’s stock, and Forbes had just added the bank to its Financial All-Stars list. Outward signs of trouble emerged on Wednesday, March 8th, when SVB surprised investors with news that the bank needed to raise more than $2 billion to shore up its balance sheet. The reaction from prominent venture capitalists was not positive, with Coatue Management, Union Square Ventures, and Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund moving to limit exposure to the 40-year-old bank. The influence of these firms is believed to have added fuel to the fire, and a bank run ensued. Also influencing decision making was the fact that SVB had the highest percentage of uninsured domestic deposits of all big banks. These totaled nearly $152 billion, or about 97% of all deposits. By the end of the day, customers had tried to withdraw $42 billion in deposits.
What Triggered the SVB Collapse?
While the collapse of SVB took place over the course of 44 hours, its roots trace back to the early pandemic years. In 2021, U.S. venture capital-backed companies raised a record $330 billion—double the amount seen in 2020. At the time, interest rates were at rock-bottom levels to help buoy the economy. Matt Levine sums up the situation well: “When interest rates are low everywhere, a dollar in 20 years is about as good as a dollar today, so a startup whose business model is “we will lose money for a decade building artificial intelligence, and then rake in lots of money in the far future” sounds pretty good. When interest rates are higher, a dollar today is better than a dollar tomorrow, so investors want cash flows. When interest rates were low for a long time, and suddenly become high, all the money that was rushing to your customers is suddenly cut off.” Source: Pitchbook Why is this important? During this time, SVB received billions of dollars from these venture-backed clients. In one year alone, their deposits increased 100%. They took these funds and invested them in longer-term bonds. As a result, this created a dangerous trap as the company expected rates would remain low. During this time, SVB invested in bonds at the top of the market. As interest rates rose higher and bond prices declined, SVB started taking major losses on their long-term bond holdings.
Losses Fueling a Liquidity Crunch
When SVB reported its fourth quarter results in early 2023, Moody’s Investor Service, a credit rating agency took notice. In early March, it said that SVB was at high risk for a downgrade due to its significant unrealized losses. In response, SVB looked to sell $2 billion of its investments at a loss to help boost liquidity for its struggling balance sheet. Soon, more hedge funds and venture investors realized SVB could be on thin ice. Depositors withdrew funds in droves, spurring a liquidity squeeze and prompting California regulators and the FDIC to step in and shut down the bank.
What Happens Now?
While much of SVB’s activity was focused on the tech sector, the bank’s shocking collapse has rattled a financial sector that is already on edge.
The four biggest U.S. banks lost a combined $52 billion the day before the SVB collapse. On Friday, other banking stocks saw double-digit drops, including Signature Bank (-23%), First Republic (-15%), and Silvergate Capital (-11%).
Source: Morningstar Direct. *Represents March 9 data, trading halted on March 10.
When the dust settles, it’s hard to predict the ripple effects that will emerge from this dramatic event. For investors, the Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen announced confidence in the banking system remaining resilient, noting that regulators have the proper tools in response to the issue.
But others have seen trouble brewing as far back as 2020 (or earlier) when commercial banking assets were skyrocketing and banks were buying bonds when rates were low.
